We are continuing the Late Round SP series and traversing to the American League Central!
AL Central
Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians
With a workhorse frame and elite prospect pedigree, Williams is lined up to have a big year in 2024 after debuting in the MLB with just 175.1 career innings to his name in the minors – talk about a fast riser! Williams is a giant, as his 6’6, 240 lb. frame is imposing to hitters. He throws a 60-grade fastball the majority of the time, a fantastic building block to keep opposing hitters on edge. He pounds them with heat, and his secondaries have potential, but he still needs some work to hit his potential. Williams handles RHB well with his fastball/slider but needs some work against LHB. His changeup is his worst pitch, and LHB really smacked it around. Once he has a solution to LHB, he will skyrocket. Williams has good control, a strong fastball, and solid team context. I am a fan of him for 2024 and beyond.
Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins
Ober has become a buzzy arm this draft season because of his excellent ratios, incredible underlying metrics, and elite team context. The Twins’ pitchers are in the catbird seat, with four cupcake matchups in the division for their pitchers and a solid offense and good bullpen to help them earn wins.
Ober lives at the top of the zone with a fastball that averages 91.3 MPH, a very unusual way to make his bones. Against RHB, he attacks them low with a slider low and away towards his glove side. He has a solid changeup to neutralize LHB as well, so he can put away both lefties and righties. My concern with Ober is simply that a 91-mile-per-hour pitcher who is very predictable shouldn’t be able to continue on this good of a run. As the league sees more of him, I think his effectiveness will decrease. In the second half, Ober allowed a 4.52 ERA, with a much higher HR rate (.87 to 2.04 HR/9 from 1H to 2H.) Ober is a solid arm after pick 150 or so, but I think the league could begin to figure him out moving forward.
Brady Singer, Kansas City Royals
A very blah starter in most regards, Singer has shown good years in his career, to some people’s surprise. Singer had a strong 2022, he had a 3.23 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, to go with 150 Ks. A nice line for the young SP. In 2023, Singer bottomed out, as his LOB% and BABIP went absolutely through the roof due to bad luck. Singer also got hit much harder and deserved a poor fate, but a 5.52 ERA was bad luck in my eyes. Singer’s projections put him at a 4.50 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP off the top. Factor in that you can stream Singer in favorable matchups, and bench him in bad matchups, and he is a good cheap SP dart throw, despite the fairly limited upside, I like his price after pick 450.
Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox
A former high-end pitching prospect, Kopech has been in the limelight since he was drafted in the first round in 2014. Kopech has battled off-the-field issues, injuries, performance lulls, and other trials and tribulations. I want to root for Kopech, but his metrics are too poor to take a chance on him. Kopech’s 2023 campaign was really a disaster, unfortunately. His control is too wobbly for me to view him as a starting pitcher, with a 15.4% BB rate, backed up by an ugly 42% ball rate. It would require a move to the bullpen for me to be interested in Kopech, where Kopech’s stuff could play up more.
Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers
Just a below-average starting pitcher after having flashes of dominance, Flaherty is priced as a streaming starting pitcher these days, with an NFBC DC ADP of 379.15, a price that isn’t atrocious. What makes it tough for me to take him is Jack’s decline, as his strikeout and walk rates have gone in opposite directions from when he was in his prime. Flaherty has really fallen off against left-handed batters, as they have completely smacked him around, and his stuff isn’t as crisp as it was at his peak. The whiff rates on his secondaries have dropped since his big run and the fastball velocity has become decrepit too. He relies on run prevention and has evolved into a pitch-to-contact arm. He will have useful games in the soft AL Central, but I do not want to play the guessing game with this mediocre talent.