2023 Lessons

The Josh Lowe Rule

A good friend of mine recommended I draft Josh Lowe in my leagues as we neared Opening Day, and thankfully I did in one my of key leagues. It was a round 25 dart that absolutely drilled bullseye. That is very different from how I usually draft since I usually want the useable, projectable boring veterans like Jose Quintana or Miles Mikolas in years past. In rounds 20-30 I typically had so many blah vets, and I need to forget looking for that and look for a big-time difference maker. Even in a deep 15-team league on NFBC, the amount of churn you do is spectacular, so shoot for the moon!

Spent More Time Researching Late-Round SPs

This one is pretty self-explanatory, but being even more researched on late SPs is a great ticket to profit and separation in roto. I did good on late-round starters last year, but there is plenty of room for improvement. I believe time, research, and a good process can help find these deep, hidden nuggets since a projection system is not going to be as beneficial for these players who need to make changes to be rosterable. 

Add the Best Plays

At First Pitch Arizona, I talked with countless people who said they wished they added this player who would have helped them, but they avoided them because they already thought they had enough depth at MI for instance. I experienced that too, but it is important to remember that sometimes that depth goes away, and adding big-time difference-makers is paramount to winning a league. 

Time is Money

Some of the best players have mentioned that spending time with fantasy baseball is directly correlated to success. Our game is sharper than ever and to be a strong player you must put in the hours, in draft prep and in-season. 

Quick Hitters:

• Fewer leagues – cut back on leagues joined. It will help resolve multiple issues
• More time spent making pitching lineup choices – The Marcus Stroman Problem
• Watch my rookie SP FAAB adds on film more this year
• Incorporate EV FB/LDs
• Incorporate Ball PCT
• Use Matty Wood’s weekly hitting planner
• Read PitcherList daily roundup

Some lessons pulled from the 2021 version of this article:

Figure out when to bench your set-n-forget players

The best players in the world are using Razzball weekly projections to help set their lineup. Often times looking for 4-game half-week hitters to slot in for Monday-Thursday on NFBC, but on top of those types of edges, monitoring player performance for all hitters/pitchers on one’s roster is absolutely paramount. The term set-n-forget is a comforting one, meaning that the player can be used for all 26 weeks in the MLB regular season, and he should produce something along the lines of the back of his baseball card numbers, but this is not always the case. Far from it in fact. Matt Chapman was my example this year, as he produced a 1.033 OPS in his first 36 games, with 5 HR, 20 runs, 22 RBI, and a .349/.436/.597 triple slash. The rest of the way he produced 12 HR, 46 runs, 32 RBI with a .660 OPS. It took me far too long to realize he was a total drain, thus proving the importance of monitoring performance/skills like a hawk.  The set-n-forget player feels like a comforting heuristic, but I won’t fall into that trap again. 

Don’t be afraid to make cuts sooner 

Some of the best players know exactly when it’s time to let go of a big-name if there is a better replacement, and in fact, upgrading to the best possible lineup in a given week could be worth more than a player’s end-of-season earned auction dollars, since those players may turn it around after returning from the IL. Still, they are guaranteed to be a ZERO until they do so. Cutting players is even more important in a 12-team format, as the replacement level is so high, and flexibility is a must. I cut Max Fried (following a forearm strain) in a 12-team NFBC league I won, and I was able to find plenty of useable SPs during the summer.

Outsource some work to the best industry sources 

Simply put fantasy baseball is a game that is covered better than ever before, and that should be to one’s benefit, as your opponents are utilizing a myriad of resources as well. Listening to many successful players this year, the Razzball Weekly Player Projections will be a must for me in my lineup-setting process. I have been a subscriber to Vlad Sedler’s FAAB article for years now, and he really makes my (and all his subscribers) life easier! There are many resources to use, so I will be talking to some of the best players and seeing what works for them and using it as well, potentially. 

Monitor standings like a hawk 

One of the benefits of fantasy baseball is each day is rewarded, unlike fantasy football where a dominant week is meaningless the next week when a new H2H matchup takes place with a fresh slate. The marathon of fantasy baseball had me feeling like I can check into the standings mid-summer after things have ‘normalized’ – a way for me to compartmentalize things and take a break from deep-diving my teams constantly. Moving forward, I want to really monitor my weekly results, my team’s ups and downs to know exactly what I will need moving forward in FAAB or how I should set my lineup.