We all know how key it is to hit on late SPs in 15-team leagues or even 12-teamers for that matter, and I wanted to lay out a handful of guys I am targeting and why. Let’s dive right in!

Post 250:

Trevor Rogers – Coming off a horrendous 2022 campaign, we have seen elite production from Trevor Rogers in 2021, showing he has front-line starter upside. Natural regression should push Rogers towards better days, and he can improve by mixing in his secondaries more regularly as he threw his fastball 53% of the time, a rate that is just too much. Using his better offerings like his changeup and slider will put hitters more off-balance and he can get better results when he uses the heater. The Marlins have an excellent home venue for Rogers to play in and he has the ability to obliterate his ADP, making him a great ‘gamble’ at his ADP, since as I stated, he has already flashed elite ace status. 

Tyler Anderson – Discounted because he is leaving the LA Dodgers, Anderson is being penalized far too much for the team switch, as he revamped his changeup with a new grip and it was used to premium results. The changeup had a 37% whiff rate and a 22% putaway rate with just a .212 wOBA against, turning batters into Brett Phillips against the pitch. He will not forget how to use this pitch, and going closer to pick 300 than 200, drafters do not want him because he is a boring veteran but he is a new pitcher now, so take advantage. 

Steven Matz – Discounted a lot after an injury-riddled year in 2022, Matz is going at a discount because of a 5.25 ERA however his underlying metrics showed he deserved a better fate. Over the last 4 seasons (389 IP), Matz has a 23% K rate and a 7% BB rate, good for a 16% K-BB, a mark that puts him in line with Framber Valdez, Alek Manoah, and Logan Gilbert. The team context of STL puts Matz in a huge advantage spot as well as his strong skills, so this is a bet on his durability, which is a question mark, however, the bet is quite good given his team situation, skills, and cheap price. 

Kenta Maeda – 

Jose Urquidy – A strong WHIP (career 1.09 WHIP) guy with the backing of the best team in baseball for his wins, Urquidy has a safe floor with the promise of higher upside given his arsenal. Urquidy’s fastball got pummelled but his secondaries have upside for growth, and given his 53% fastball usage rate, I wouldn’t put it past the smartest pitching team in baseball to further optimize Urquidy.

Carlos Carrasco – The ole veteran continues to deliver for fantasy owners, and re-upping in the comfortable New York Met environment gave Cookie Carrasco the comfort of a spacious home venue and an elite team for run support and a great bullpen. Carrasco does have a bad fastball, yes, but he has 3 pitches with a whiff rate of 30% of higher, with his changeup, slider and curveball boasting great marks. Cheap wins with a nice K per frame.

Zach Eflin – When it comes to baseball, sometimes the org. tell you everything you need to know, and they doled out the largest FA contract in franchise history to Eflin this winter.

Contract:	3 yr, $40M (2023-25)
AAV:	$13.3M

Clearly they see SP potential in Eflin even though he was a RP for Philly last October, and his skills support a strong endorsement.

Year	IP	K-BB	ERA	xERA	FIP	SIERA
2020	59	22.40%	3.97	3.35	3.39	3.5
2021	105.2	18.80%	4.17	3.87	3.68	3.81
2022	75.2	16.00%	4.04	3.27	3.56	3.78

I don’t think Eflin is going to log extremely heavy innings due to durability issues in the past, as well as some chronic knee issues that date back to HS, however on a per inning basis I believe he can find a new level.

In terms of optimizing Eflin, look for Tampa to amp up the use of his curveball, a pitch that drew whiffs 44% against both LHB and RHB. There is nothing but profit with Eflin, and the market is sleeping on him greatly.

Post 350:

Alex Wood – A boring veteran to many, Wood had horrendous luck last year, as his good 3.45 SIERA and his elite 18.2% K-BB show that he was much better than his 5.10 ERA. The Giants’ defense won’t do him a lot of favors given it’s old and lost a bit of athletic ability over the years, but Wood is flat-out undervalued in my book.

Ryne Nelson – A premium fastball propelled Nelson onto the target list, as well as a strong PPSTUFF+ of 115, opportunity will knock for Nelson at some point and he can overpower opposing batters when he is locating his heater.

Jose Suarez – Not a ton of sizzle to Jose Suarez, and while a 6-man rotation could limit him a little, Suarez had a cromulent 15% K-BB rate in 2022. Each ERA indicator stated that Suarez deserved a better fate in 2022, so a little bad luck did strike. In order to achieve these results, Suarez added a slider in 2022, a new pitch for him, and it was quite solid, further adding to a decent base. With better outcomes from Lady Luck on his side, and he could pop into an SP4 for you at a fraction of the retail price!

Clarke Schmidt – After proving to Yankees’ brass that he can dominate the Minor Leagues, Schmidt will have a good chance to win a rotation spot out of ST this year. Schmidt already knows that he needs to pump up the use of his best pitches, the slider/curve combo, while decreasing the use of his not-good fastball. The former first-rounder is a little bulldog on the bump, and the added cutter that he has flashed this spring could help him level up into a strong mid-rotation starter for an elite club.

Ken Waldichuk – After coming over in the Frankie Montas trade, Waldichuk was afforded an instant opportunity for Oakland, and he will attempt to solidify himself in the rotation with his combination of fastball, changeup, and slider, a mix that decimated same-handed batters. Against RHB, he got destroyed, however, his usage of a fastball 56% (.741 Slug against) of the time can be lowered, as it was punished and his secondaries shined (changeup/slider had whiffs rates of 31% and 38% respectively). In terms of PPSTUFF+, Waldichuk had a decent 101 number, which is above average but not exciting, so he may need to rely on the home park in order to achieve, but we have seen players like Cole Irvin and Paul Blackburn provide fantasy viability and I think Waldichuk has much more raw upside.

Post 450:

Michael Lorenzen – Lorenzen is a streamer with a good home venue, unfortunately, has poor durability and needs to hone in walks. Just in his 2nd year as a SP so growth could occur with more experience. Needs to dump the cutter for more sliders. His best pitches are changeup and slider, with decent velocity. Growth stock.

Graham Ashcraft – Ashcraft had poor luck based on the underlying ERA metrics, and therefore can take a step up with his elite velocity. Additionally, he has a great PPSTUFF+ of 109, which would put him ahead of Luis Severino. In order to take another step, he needs to throw slider more, but there is strong upside with Ashcraft.

Prospects:

Brandon Pfaadt – Capable of being a game-changer in roto leagues, Pfaadt brings elite durability and a well-commanded 4-pitch mix, with good results on the fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball. He can get out both-handed batters and has no workload restrictions, and very well could break camp with the Big League Team, great investment.

Bobby Miller – Some of the loudest stuff in the minors with a good org., Miller could be a crazy value in DNH formats, or a break the FAAB bank guy. The role is a question but the talent is electric, video game-level stuff, and movement, he could swing a league if he earns an opportunity in Dodger Blue.

Gavin Stone – Changeup guy who added velocity, opportunity knocks for good things in LA despite the large crowd. Age is appropriate for a call and he’s ready to blossom at The Show in 2023 with his pitchability and advanced 3-pitch mix. Stone had better stats than Miller, but Miller has louder stuff. Pairing them both in a DNH is a lot of fun.

Kyle Harrison – Highly skilled prospect arm but opportunity is tricky and he had high walks in minors. When he gets the call will be determined by an injury, and likely multiple injuries given the Giants’ decent depth. The upside is a Robbie Ray variant, if he clicks.