We are continuing on with the Late Round SP series and traversing to the American League East!
AL East
Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays –
Not quite a deep starter, but Bassitt is worth a good look here to see if we should target or fade him. When looking at Bassitt, we must give him some kudos. He is not a sexy player, but he is top 10 in the MLB in innings over the last three seasons. Since Bassitt became a full-time starting pitcher in the MLB in 2019, he has 746.0 innings pitched with a 3.39 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, a 23.0% strikeout rate, and a 6.9% walk rate. His BABIP is .274, and his LOB% is 77.8% – so it is not luck-driven. His low SwSTR% and low whiff rates will concern managers, but he is the quintessential kitchen sink arm. He has 6 pitches he will use in any count and against any-handed hitter. He keeps the batter guessing. My concern with Bassitt, outside of his poor whiff rates, is surrounding his dropping velocity. He lost a full tick of velo on his fastball, a bad sign for a 35-year-old pitcher. That being said, the projection from ATC of a 4.01 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 162 strikeouts across 180.0 innings pitched is a fair floor, with the potential he keeps up his much better performance. His ADP of 137.0 in DCs over the last 30 days is not a price I am excited to pay, but I like him around pick 150-160 or so when the exciting choices like Hunter Greene, Michael King, and the reliable bats like Ian Happ and Willson Contreras have dried up off the board. Prefer Bassitt in a draft & hold as well.
Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays –
After being an electric arm in the Dodgers system for years, Pepiot finally dialed in his command/control and took a step forward in 2023. Pepiot missed chunks of the season due to an oblique injury, but between the AAA/MLB, he pitched 64.2 innings with 64 strikeouts, 10 walks, and a 3.21 ERA across both levels. The cleaned-up control yielded major benefits for Pepiot, as the command was a big problem. He is a fastball/changeup/slider guy who sticks with his fastball and changeup 85% of the time. I do not believe that will be a strong mix against right-handed batters, but he will be very strong against left-handed hitters. Looking at the projections, the systems mainly think he will be a four-ish ERA arm with a decent WHIP and good Ks. I tend to agree, and while he has upside, there is too much unknown/risk for me to select him inside the top 200 picks, where he normally goes.
Kutter Crawford, Boston Red Sox –
A deep, buzzy sleeper, Kutter Crawford shined for the Red Sox in 2023, with 129.1 innings pitched, a 4.04 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP, and 135 strikeouts to just 36 walks. Some of that goodness did come in relief, so you can’t fully extrapolate those numbers, especially because he has never shown a big workload, either. Crawford has a nice pitch mix, including a dominant fastball that excels against both-handedness, a great foundational pitch. He also has a decent cutter and a splitter he uses against LHB. Overall, Crawford has an excellent pitch mix and multiple ways to put out opposing hitters. Once Crawford became an SP, his ERA rose to 4.20 with just 5 starts out of 21, where he went 6+ innings pitched. Wins could be a problem for him, but that is picking the nits. Ultimately, I think Crawford is a nice upside shot where he goes, despite the tough home park of Fenway Park, as long as he is your SP5/6 or later on your staff.
Dean Kremer, Baltimore Orioles –
Becoming a sleeper of sorts, Kremer has elite team context on the O’s, with a great home park, a strong defense behind him, a good bullpen, and a potent offense to give him run support. On top of those nice factors, Kremer has become a useful 15-team arm for roto and has done so by increasing his fastball velocity year over year multiple times since 2021, and is now nearly 95 MPH on average. Kremer’s fastball was a pretty decent foundational pitch, and his cutter kept batters off-balance as well. Kremer also mixes in a sinker/changeup/sweeper as well, to give him a slight kitchen sink approach in addition to his fastball. Overall, I think Kremer is a nice streamer to plug in against bad teams and in double-start weeks for volume and wins.
Clarke Schmidt, New York Yankees –
Schmidt was a massive buzz guy heading into Main Events after famously adding a cutter, and that pick fizzled at the high-end cost. Still, Clarke was serviceable, with 159.0 innings of a 4.64 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP with 149 strikeouts and 9 wins. He’s not horrible as a matchup starter since he got rocked by the Braves and Rangers for 13 earned runs combined – remove those tough starts, and the numbers are useable. Clarke is really hard on right-handed batters with a stingy .236/.277/.405 triple slash against them, good for a 20.0% K-BB. He struggles against lefty bats, with a paltry 9.6% K-BB%, and he really needs to find a weapon against those batters. Clarke lobs in a get-me-over cutter against LHB that needs to be reworked. His sinker against lefties might be a better strategy, but that isn’t ideal. I like his curveball that he reserves for LHBs and that is a pitch that has true upside, with a 34.5% whiff rate (his best pitch in that regard) and a measly .265 XSLUG against. Overall, Clarke is a matchup streamer that can be used against righty heavy lineups or a in double-start weeks for wins upside on the Bronx Bombers. I am a huge fan of him at the cheap price of 356 ADP in DCs over the last 30 days.