We are continuing on with the Late Round SP series and traversing to the National League Central! As you can see, some of the names in my article aren’t as late as I was initially planning, only because some higher ADP players are more worth discussing when a late-round option doesn’t appear.

NL Central

Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates –

A strong pedigree arm who toiled in mediocrity for years, Keller took small baby steps up until the 2023 season, in which he was a great value for drafters, with 194.1 IP, 210 Ks with 13 wins and a 4.21 ERA, and a 1.25 WHIP. He was a rollercoaster, but if you consider the totality of his production in a 15-team mixed league, he was a nice, cheap add. Moving towards 2024, his price is much higher than a late-round arm, but I want to dissect him. On my sheet, Keller stands out for a 25% K rate, a solid 19% K-BB, good velocity fuels a solid 104 Stuff+, and a healthy 28% CSW. His 4.21 ERA looks blah to some, but his bulk has value given how IP totals are going down, and his 3.80 SIERA shows he may have been unlucky at times. He has a true 5 pitch mix and knows how to leverage his pitches to produce solid results. I think he is completely properly valued if you want bulk Ks and a solid producer, though he won’t wow you.

Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals –

After serving up an MLB-high 44 HRs in 183.2 IP, Lynn will call STL his home, a team the Indianapolis native has a history with. He strung together a half-decade or so of useful fantasy campaigns before he imploded in 2023. On the surface, the skills aren’t totally gone. His 15.4% K-BB ranks him inside the Top 30 for all qualified arms, and his 4.33 SIERA says he was unfortunate, but his xERA and FIP say his poor fate was mostly deserved. Lynn has lost 1 MPH in his last 2 seasons, a sign father time is calling, and is down to just 92 MPH. That partially explains the 2.19 HR/9 to me. Lynn has lowered his FB usage, but it’s his best whiff pitch, so there isn’t an adjustment there, I see, that could ‘fix’ him. Ultimately, I believe Lynn is a volume pitcher who is a risk to be around a 4.25-ish ERA with more usefulness at home in a friendly confine. He is a pure avoid for me with so many red flags, but his volume should be nice in an NL-Only or if you need to sop up the late volume in a DC, but I prefer to stab at more upside.

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds –

A former high-end prospect who cruised through the MiLB en route to The Show, Lodolo is a bounce-back candidate who has shown to be fairly injury-risky, but the skills still are attractive to me. A 22.3% K-BB rate is great in his range of the draft and is backed up by key indicators like a 13% SwStr and 31% CSW. His surface stats show a heinous 6.29 ERA, with a 1.75 WHIP, but the SIERA is sitting at 3.46, granted that neutralized his ridiculous Dylan Bundy-esque 2.62 HR/9. Overall, I think this is a nice swing at Ks and a higher level however the risk of GABP is keeping his cost low. There is sleeper potential here as a great SP4/5.

Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs –

A decidedly boring arm, Taillon is your traditional Toby in every sense. That said, he is going very cheap and has typically provided roto usefulness! It was a really, really rough start for Taillon, as he worked through pitch mix tweaks, but he got into a groove from July 7th on and had 90.2 IP with 81 Ks to 21 BBs and a 3.38 ERA over that span. It does seem Taillon can still provide value in 15-team leagues as a good 2-start option and a WHIP stabilizer. It’s nothing special, but after pick 280, that has a place for some SP needy clubs.

Colin Rea, Milwaukee Brewers –

A no-name arm even in deep leagues, Rea went overseas and came back to MLB and provided utility to the Brewers in 2023. Going into 2024, he is completely overlooked, with a 568 ADP in DCs but a starting role in the Milwaukee rotation. Rea’s contribution was his 1.19 WHIP, supported by a 7% walk rate and a low 34% ball percentage. Rea uses a 5-pitch kitchen sink approach with no out pitches to help him, but a 28% CSW helps him throw strikes. I do not think there is much upside here, but a potentially useable starter this late is worth a look.

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