I will be going division by division looking at late-round SPs, since those are the player types that can greatly create a profit in the later rounds. Not each player will be a buy for me, since I want to highlight landmines if that is what I find the players to be. Let’s dive in!

NL East

Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves –

There has been more and more discussion surrounding wins in fantasy every year, and the thirst for SPs on elite teams is very real, and rightfully so. However, I am warning you to be very cautious with Bryce Elder, however cheap he might be in a DC. His 8% K-BB ranks very poorly, next to names like Trevor Williams, Patrick Corbin, and Jake Irvin. His 3.81 ERA will look good to some, but remember his SIERA was 4.82 and his other ERA indicators were not very kind. Just avoid this arm, because though the chance at cheap wins may seem nice, it will come with very costly ratio damage.

Max Meyer, Miami Marlins –

Going after pick 450 in some drafts, Meyer is geared up for 2024 after undergoing TJS in August of 2022, so he will have a full 20 months (the same amount of time as Walker Buehler) of recovery before April 2024. Based on talent alone he is going much cheaper than I expected, but there are risk factors like volume and TJS rust that could hurt him. At his peak, Meyer had a devasting slider and a wicked upper-90s fastball to dominate RHBs. His changeup will need to take a step forward, but for a pure upside guy who will be a good start at home and against the Nats/Mets, I am all over Meyer as an upside SP arm.

MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals –

A former elite pitching prospect who was viewed as a front-line starter, Gore has been a rollercoaster up and down on his path to becoming a viable Big Leaguer. His 2023 campaign is a positive in my mind, with 136.1 innings, 152 Ks, a 4.42 ERA a 1.40 WHIP, and a 26% K Rate that will be viable in all formats. The 1H was better for Gore, as he had a 17.4% K-BB through his first 14 starts, then he hit a wall in the 2H, with a 14.7% K-BB and a decline in K rate. I do believe that 1H shows his upside as a high K rate arm with room for growth and that he wore down in the 2H, given he had a velocity drop and isn’t used to that large of a workload. With Gore, the obvious positive is the high K rate, but he also is in the 94th percentile in extension, making his offerings play up even better. Interestingly enough, his .325 wOBA against RHB was fine, but a .389 wOBA against LHB ballooned his line. I believe he can craft a better plan against LHBs. He also has plenty of room to grow in reducing walks too, as he has a lot of room to shave damage down off his 10% walk rate, an achievable task in my book. I believe there are multiple paths to grow for Gore, a player who has already demonstrated a nice K rate and could grow in his 2nd full season as an MLB SP.

Jose Quintana, New York Mets –

On the surface, I felt like Quintana was a decent Toby for a DC, a guy you can use in cake matchups or at home. There are some positives to Q, but some pretty glaring negatives too. His velocity remained consistent at around 91.5 MPH for about 5 years running, then last year it tailed off to 90.5 MPH near the Greinke-zone, so that is a scare for me. His FB gave up a .585 Slug, while his sinker only allowed a .253 Slug. He lowered his FB usage to a career-low of 24%, so he knows that it’s not at peak form. His K rate was below 20% for the first time, so that is not promising either, and his biggest asset was HR prevention, a noisy stat itself. Based on FIP, his 3.5 ERA was justified, but indicators that give him an average amount of HRs bloated his ERA to a 4.5 mark. The bad news is that with a declining skillset, we have a volume pitcher who is relying on HR prevention and is unlikely to unlock a higher level of strikeouts in his age-35 season. The good news is that for his career he has a .90 HR/9 allowed, so it is possible that he can provide a useful streaming season, and at around pick 395 I think it is a fair price, however, my excitement is drained after diving him since the upside is very limited and he has some risk.

Ranger Suarez, Philadelphia Phillies –

Almost a non-descript pitcher, Ranger Suarez has faded out of the drafters’ minds with an ADP after pick 350. Suarez has some slight pluses, considering the fact he is a rotation member for the elite Phillies and should be in line for some wins. Elbow strain delayed the start of the year for Suarez, but he was a useable-at-times mixed league arm afterward. His game plan is to dominate LHBs (.261 wOBA) but he is not particularly great at quelling RHBs (.338 wOBA.) He needs a better process against RHBs and he can graduate to a usually-start fantasy SP. For now, he is a flyer who is just a decent pick, I do not see a resounding positive or negative him this late ADP.

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