We are continuing on with the Late Round SP series and traversing to the National League West!
NL West
Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers –
A 6th-round selection out of Boston College in 2021, Sheehan was an excellent development story for the Dodgers as a non-heralded prospect. Sheehan has shown excellent numbers as a Dodgers farm hand and parlayed that into a 2023 MLB debut. Initially, his numbers were rocky at the MLB level, as the surface stats show. However, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see how hot he was to close out the year. From August 29th till the end of the year, Sheehan pitched 31 innings with 42 strikeouts, 10 walks, and a 3.19 ERA with a .94 WHIP. He started leaning on his secondaries more (slider/changeup), which was colossal for him! Over his last seven appearances, Sheehan had a blistering 18.5% SwSTR, an elite 76.1% Z-Contact rate, and a red-hot 35.3% K rate. Wowzah.
As far as innings pitched, Sheehan will have a limited workload. I expect the Dodgers to spread their starters’ workload out and not rely too much on one arm. I think this opens the door for Sheehan to take the ball 25+ times in LA and provide incredible SP upside.
Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks –
A former big-time darling sleeper pitcher heading into 2023, Pfaadt didn’t provide as much value as his investors hoped. With 96 innings of 5.72 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP with less than a K per inning, Pfaadt fell flat. You don’t have to parse the metrics too deep to see he clearly had back luck. A .315 BABIP is sky-high, as well as an unlucky 2.06 HR/9. Pfaadt’s best two pitches are a sweeper and a changeup, as they both draw plenty of whiffs. His fastball on the other hand, needs some work.
Following a move on the rubber under the guidance of Legendary Pitching Coach Brent Strahm, Pfaadt put up a solid 24.4% K Rate with a stingy 5.8% BB rate. That 2H uptick was the key to him gaining his footing at The Show.
Looking at Pfaadt’s run in the postseason, it was clear he has another level. Arizona provides him with plus team context, with a defense ready to vacuum up baseballs and a fairly solid offense. The ADP, right around the 215th pick, is not a bargain by any means, but it isn’t too bad. Still, he will need to continue to level up to have a chance at returning value, and I will pass on that proposition. His fastball still gives me concerns, but there is an upside in this arm.
Michael King, San Diego Padres –
One of the big prizes heading to San Diego in a Juan Soto deal, King captured fantasy managers’ attention last year with a monster campaign. 104.2 innings of 2.75 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 127 Ks, and 32 BBs will do that, especially because he converted to an SP role in August and dominated during that starting stint. Before we investigate his durability, remember that King has a sick arsenal. He shows no platoon splits, which is a colossal box to check. He can get it done against both lefty and righty bats. King posted a scorching 33.2% CSW, showing his elite upside from start to finish. His main two whiff weapons are a sweeper (39.4% whiff rate) and changeup (40.5% whiff rate). He repeatedly made batters look foolish.
Now, how many frames can we expect from King? King topped the 100+ IP marker multiple times as a minor leaguer, including a healthy 149 IP total in 2017. It is possible he can hold up despite the elbow injury he suffered in 2022. Many will cite that as a massive red flag, elevating his risk. We must remember that he was dominant down the stretch and regularly pumping in 95 and 96 MPH, so I don’t think his risk is as high if you make King an SP4 or, at worst, SP3. Big upside here with King.
Keaton Winn, San Francisco Giants –
Winn debuted in 2023 after being a non-prospect (40+ FV) and posted interesting numbers for a sleeper SP. His surface line of 42.1 innings pitched with a 4.68 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 35 Ks to 8 BBs (supported by a tiny 32% ball percentage) shows good control. Dig a little deeper, and we see a potent 13.9% SwSTR rate, a strong 29.1% CSW rate, and an elite 78.5% Z-Contact rate. Winn makes hay with a filthy splitter that boasts a 34.4% whiff rate, as it is a money pitch for him, and he throws it 55% of the time. His other two pitches are a fastball and a sinker, and he throws them 45% of the time combined. His sinker has been the better pitcher, as his heater got destroyed (.742 slug allowed.) Winn could be a breakout arm if he can log decent volume, as he has a great splitter and a good home park. His role is questionable now, but that is factored into his ADP, as his ADP has been after picking 400 in NFBC DCs since January 1st. Solid upside pick if you already have a sturdy pitching base.
Justin Lawrence, Colorado Rockies –
Because the Rockies have no SPs worth drafting in any mixed-league formats, I will look at Justin Lawrence. Slated to battle for saves in the Rockies’ bullpen potentially, Lawrence is an interesting arm to dissect. Lawrence has a 405 ADP in DCs over the last month, which isn’t super early for an RP dart, but it isn’t super late, either. Plenty of FT hitters still exist, so the opportunity cost is real. Before we look at Lawrence, we need to remember that the Rockies will not win many games, and their bridge to the 9th is about as sketchy as the Bridge of Khazad Dum from Lord of The Rings, thus capping saves for Colorado closers.
Lawrence is a 2-pitch arm with a sinker-sweeper combo, and he is nasty on video. His sinker is hittable despite the wicked movement, and his control isn’t that great either (11.0% BB rate.) The sweeper got much better results, and he had a 51/49 split on his two pitches, leaning a touch more on the sinker. If he used the sweeper more, he could unlock something more. Lawrence has more experience than Tyler Kinley, which is also a positive! However, he is a fade for me unless he slips closer to pick 500.